UrBC, Moscow, March 4, 2019. According to the Central Bank of Russia’s January issue of Economy: facts, assessments and comments, the annual GDP growth can be expected to reach 1% to 1.5% in the first quarter of 2019 and 1.2%-1.7% by the end of the year.

In terms of volume, Russia’s GDP rose by 2.3% in 2018, which was somewhat better than the CBR had predicted (1.5% to 2%) and also higher than could be expected from the economy’s long-term potential. In many respects, this was brought about by temporary factors (including, for example, the completion of certain large-scale infrastructure projects).

Unlike in earlier years, the agricultural sector only had a negative impact on the national economy’s growth in 2018. This had to do with worse grain harvest and the slowing down of the cattle industry (mostly because the home market was saturated and epizootic issues in some parts of the country).

On the whole, the business performance indicators in January corresponded to the CBR’s earlier forecasts. The industrial output remained the same as one month previously. The rising investment demand was mostly import-related last month. The retail trade turnover growth slowed down, rather predictably if one considers the VAT increase, among other things.