World Bank: Global GDP Growth Forecast down to 2.9% in 2019

UrBC, Moscow, January 10, 2019. The World Bank adjusted its June forecast for the global economy’s growth by 0.1 percentage point (the figure is now 2.9% a year) due to a downfall in the trade sector and industrial activity as well as trade tensions, Prime refers to the bank’s Global Economic Prospects report as indicating.

The GDP growth expectations for the year 2020 are also more pessimistic: the figure is down by 0.1 percentage point and comes to 2.8%.

‘In all, global growth is projected to moderate from a downwardly revised 3 percent in 2018 to 2.9 percent in 2019 and 2.8 percent in 2020-21,’ the World Bank states.

‘The outlook for the global economy has darkened. Global financing conditions have tightened, industrial production has moderated, trade tensions have intensified, and some large emerging market and developing economies have experienced significant financial market stress.’

The bank still expects the developed economies to grow by 2% a year in 2019 and, in the case of the United States, by 2.5% a year. However, the U.S. forecast for the year 2020 is down by 0.3 percentage point and stands at 1.7%. The Euro zone forecast is also down by 0.1 percentage point and stands at 1.6% for the year 2020.

As for the EMDEs, their growth forecast is down by 0.5 percentage point in 2019 and by 0.2 percentage point in 2020 (4.2% and 4.5% a year, respectively).

The GDP growth forecast for China (an emerging market) is down by 0.1 percentage point and stands at 6.2%; the forecast for the year 2020 has remained the same and the expected figure is 6.2%. For India, the expectations remain at a 7.5% increase in GDP in the next two years.

The World Bank still considers its December forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 viable: 1.5% and 1.8%, respectively. This is, in fact, 0.3 percentage point lower than the one given last June. As for the BRICS countries put together (Russia, China, and India included), the expected increase in GDP is now believed to be 0.2 and 0.1 percentage lower: 5.2% and 5.3% a year, respectively.

Brazil’s GDP is expected to rise by 2.2% in 2019 (0.3 percentage points lower than originally predicted) and by 2.4% in 2020.

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