‘The dollar’s position might slightly improve this week, but this won’t last long,’ says SKB-Bank’s Dealing Director Anton Khavin.


‘The European Central Bank’s meeting that resulted in the decision to keep the refinancing rate as it is (that is, at 4%), was definitely the highlight of last week. Despite the bank’s anxiety related to inflation, they might still go through with decreasing the rate further in the second half of the year because of the poor performance of some European countries,’ he said.


‘In the meantime, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve System’s minutes, no dramatic rate drops are to be expected. The country’s housing sales went down by 21%, the number of dole applications decreased by 53,000, which served to support the dollar a little. However, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index has plummeted down to 63.2 points, its lowest-ever record since 1982,’ Khavin noted.


‘This week, Europe is expected to come up with a series of important data on economic expectations and consumer price dynamics; the U.S. is supposed to publish reports on retail sales, industrial output, and inflation rates, so the euro/dollar rate is likely to come to 1/1.56-1.57 due to the euro decreasing a bit by the end of this week. The dollar/ruble rate will probably come to 1/23.6,’ he observed.