UrBC, Moscow, May 14, 2019. The year’s inflation appears to be past its peak, as the VAT increase is becoming less of a factor and the temporary inflation-halting variables gain increasingly more impact, the findings of the Central Bank of Russia’s Research & Forecasting Department’s Talking Trends bulletin indicate.

According to the bulletin’s April 2019 issue, the monthly growth of consumer prices (adjusted against the seasonal and other factors) falls within the Bank of Russia’s target range. Inflation forecasts tend to stay on the worse-case-scenario side (although to a lesser degree than earlier), which means all the medium-term pro-inflation risks are still in place.

The Talking Trends analysts point out that the current consumer price dynamics and the level of inflation pressure both indicate that the inflation rate might slow down to 4% in the first quarter of 2020; the strengthening of the Russian ruble might act as one of the drivers for the trend.