UrBC, Yekaterinburg, September 16, 2016. The Ural Bank for Reconstruction & Development’s Holistic Risk Management Director Dmitri Zavyalov is confident the Central Bank won’t let the refinancing rate decline by any more than 0.5%.

‘Russia’s inflation rate has been gradually going down for the last few months, from 7.5% in June down to 6.9% in August, for example. People’s inflation expectations are also changing. Based on the Central Bank’s August 2016 report, the number of survey respondents who expect the inflation to slow down next year rose by 2%, up to 18% altogether. At the same time, the share of those surveyed who believe inflation rate will remain the same dropped by 4%, down to 51%. Additionally, the country’s banking system is facing liquidity surplus. The inflow of funds to the banking sector has already resulted in banks now owing less to the Central Bank, and further rate decrease looks like a logical next step on the regulatory body’s part,’ Zavyalov says.

According to Zavyalov, it’s hard to say just what the Central Bank will decide regarding the refinancing rate. The national economy is now a combination of both catalyzing and inhibiting factors, so the refinancing rate might remain as it is (10.5%) or go down, but by no more than 0.5%.